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Current Value
Goal
Buy
Dividends
Return
Total Gain
Pct of Portfolio
Reported
Reviewed
Current Price
Average Paid
HSY The Hershey Company
11-7-24
5-4-24
161.52
Quality
Quality
Story
Predictability
1 Year Total Return
-24.5
3 Year Total Return
3.93
10 Year Total Return
9
Years
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Revenue CAGR
6
11
10
8
7
6
6
5
5
20
Eps Cagr (F) 0
13
16
15
13
12
12
12
11
10
10
Eps 10 Yr 40%
13
19
14
9
8
13
8
7
3
8
Eps 20 Yr 55%
15
15
11
18
15
-9
-12
0
14
16
1Year Div Growth
23.65
3Year Div Growth
16.80
5Year Div Growth
12.16
10Year Div Growth
10.20
Dividend Yield
3.39
Dividend Yield with Buy Backs
4.69
5 Year Average Dividend Yield
2.08
5 Year YOC
5.11
Payout
59%
Moat
Beta
0.0
ROIC Now
23.0
ROIC Times Growth
0
Share Count CAGR
-0.56
Analyst Recommendations
2.7
Credit Rating
A
Debt to Ebitda
1.6
Debt to Capital
0.59
Nicholas Ward
2023-12-30
EARNINGS REPORTED
11-7-2024
Ignore
MS
PE15
Avg PE
Avg Yield
Flags
Watch
Hold Buys
Hold Automated
Margin of Safety
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55 *
ROIC PE Actual
A
B
C
D
F
X
ROIC PE Value
A
B
C
D
F
X
Growth: 0.0 ROIC: 23.0 Trailing PE: 19.6 Forward PE: 19.8
Gro
4%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24% *
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
>40
<3 *
3%
12.5
12.9
13.3
13.8
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.7
14.9
15.1
15.3
15.5
15.7
15.9
16.1
16.3
16.5
4%
7.1
12.5
13.1
13.8
14.5
15.2
15.4
15.6
15.8
16.1
16.3
16.6
16.8
17.1
17.3
17.6
17.8
18.1
5%
12.5
13.4
14.3
15.2
16.1
16.4
16.7
17.0
17.3
17.6
17.9
18.2
18.5
18.8
19.1
19.4
19.7
6%
3.3
12.5
13.6
14.8
15.9
17.1
17.4
17.8
18.2
18.6
19.0
19.4
19.8
20.2
20.6
21.0
21.4
21.8
7%
12.5
13.9
15.3
16.7
18.2
18.7
19.2
19.7
20.2
20.7
21.2
21.7
22.2
22.7
23.2
23.7
24.2
8%
0
12.5
14.2
15.9
17.6
19.4
20.0
20.6
21.2
21.8
22.4
23.0
23.6
24.2
24.8
25.4
26.0
26.6
9%
0
12.5
14.5
16.6
18.7
20.9
21.6
22.3
23.0
23.7
24.4
25.1
25.8
26.5
27.2
27.9
28.6
29.3
10%
0
12.5
14.9
17.4
19.9
22.4
23.2
24.0
24.8
25.7
26.5
27.4
28.2
29.1
29.9
30.8
31.6
32.5
11%
12.5
15.3
18.2
21.0
23.9
24.8
25.7
26.7
27.7
28.7
29.7
30.7
31.7
32.7
33.7
34.7
35.7
12%
12.5
15.7
18.9
22.1
25.4
26.4
27.4
28.5
29.6
30.7
31.8
32.9
34.0
35.1
36.2
37.3
38.4
13%
12.5
16.1
19.8
23.2
26.9
28.0
29.1
30.3
31.5
32.7
33.9
35.1
36.3
37.5
38.8
39.9
41.1
14%
12.5
16.5
20.7
24.3
28.4
29.6
30.8
32.1
33.4
34.7
36.0
37.3
38.6
39.9
41.4
42.5
43.8
15%
12.5
16.9
21.6
25.4
29.9
31.2
32.5
33.9
35.3
36.7
38.1
39.5
40.9
42.3
44.0
45.1
46.5
16%
12.5
17.3
22.5
26.5
31.4
32.8
34.2
35.7
37.2
38.7
40.2
41.7
43.2
44.7
46.6
47.7
49.2
17%
12.5
17.7
23.4
27.6
32.9
34.4
35.9
37.5
39.1
40.7
42.3
43.9
45.5
47.1
49.2
50.3
51.9
18%
12.5
18.1
24.3
28.7
34.4
36.0
37.6
39.3
41.0
42.7
44.4
46.1
47.8
49.5
51.8
52.9
54.6
>18
Code
A
B
C
D
F
P
S
X
Moat
Wide
Narrow
None
Credit Rating
AAA
AA+
AA
AA-
A+
A
A-
No debt
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
< BBB
None
VL Safety
1
2
3
4
5
None
VL Strength
A++
A+
A
B++
B+
B
<B
None
Dividend
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
None
Safety Score
Exchange
Price
Price
MS Stars
DAY
-0.73
1W
171.76
-6.24
-3.63
2W
170.26
-4.74
-2.78
4W
174.70
-9.18
-5.25
8W
175.67
-10.15
-5.78
12W
185.98
-20.46
-11.00
26W
184.15
-18.63
-10.12
52W
187.64
-22.12
-11.79
Target
-23%
Morningstar Target
-23%
Analyst Target
-11%
Dividend Radar Fair Value
-16%
Trailing PE
20
Forward PE
20
Vs. 5 Year P/E (-25%)
75
Vs. 5 Year Dividend Yield
72
Expected PE based on ROIC and Growth
Dip
-17
52 Week Low
166
52 Week High
212
X
With 0% Margin of Safety
210.00
-48.48
-23.09%
My Fair Value
210.00
-48.48
-23.09%
Analyst Target
182.17
-20.65
-11.34%
Average Value
206.67
-45.15
-21.85%
+ Morningstar Value
210.00
-48.48
-23.09%
+ PE 15 Value
119.23
42.29
35.47%
- Average PE Value
0.00
0.00
0.00%
+ Avg Yield Value
263.46
-101.94
-38.69%
- Div Radar Value
161.52
0.00
0.00%
+ Nicholas Ward 2023-10 X
234.00
-72.48
-30.97%